Construct · 1 fields · 1 citations

hot hand: a standalone construct

One name. One construct. A landmark on the map.

● anchor · a single construct Nearest construct by meaning·not indexed
hot hand1 CONSTRUCTHot-hand fallacyGILOVICH ET AL. · 1985

A single standalone construct; nearby constructs are located against it in the Collider. Tap a field for its definition, unit, and measures.

Cognitive psychology

Seeing streaks in independent outcomes

The hot hand is the belief that success breeds success in a run of attempts (that a basketball player who has just made several shots is more likely to make the next), and the hot-hand fallacy is the claim that this belief misreads ordinary randomness. Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky's 1985 The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences found that players' makes and misses were close to statistically independent, so the perceived streakiness exceeded what the data supported; later work has debated how much a small analytic bias in that method understated any real effect. The referent is a belief about dependence in sequences of outcomes, studied through shooting records and perception experiments, and it is the mirror image of the gambler's fallacy, which expects streaks to reverse.[1]

Unit
The gap between perceived and actual dependence across a run of outcomes
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Tested by comparing conditional success rates after hits versus misses against independence, and by perception studies

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Nearby constructs

Monte Carlo2 fields · 2 citationsjingle · one name, two constructsstreak2 fields · 2 citationsjingle · one word, two constructsbelief4 fields · 4 citationsjingle · one word, four constructs

References

  1. Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295–314. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6

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