Construct · 2 fields · 2 citations

nowcasting: one construct, many systems

One name. One construct. Different systems. One map.

● invariant · one construct, two systems Nearest construct by meaning·not indexed
term and idea borrowed into macroeconomics to predict the presentnowcasting2 SYSTEMSWeather nowcastingWILSON · 0–6 HEconomic nowcastingGIANNONE · NOW-GDP

Spokes are the systems the one construct recurs in; dashed arcs are shared lineage. Tap a field for its definition, unit, and measures.

1998Weather nowcasting2008Economic nowcasting
2026

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Meteorology

Extrapolate current obs out a few hours

In meteorology, nowcasting is very-short-range forecasting (roughly current conditions out to about six hours), built by extrapolating what observations already show (radar echoes, satellite imagery, surface reports) rather than by running a full numerical model forward. Wilson and colleagues' 1998 Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report surveys how such systems track and project storms over the next few hours. The referent is estimating the present and immediate future of the atmosphere from incomplete, just-arrived data, the same problem macroeconomists later borrowed the word for.[1]

Unit
A forecast of present-to-+6 h conditions from current observations
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Verified against observations over the next minutes to hours, e.g. by skill relative to extrapolation and persistence baselines

Macroeconomics

Estimate the current quarter before release

In macroeconomics, nowcasting is estimating the present (for example the current quarter's GDP) before the official figure is released, by continuously updating a prediction as higher-frequency indicators arrive through the quarter. Giannone, Reichlin, and Small's 2008 Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data formalised this, explicitly adopting the meteorologists' term for predicting the present. It is the same construct as weather nowcasting (inferring a system's current state from incomplete, staggered data), transposed to the economy.[2]

Unit
A running estimate of a current-period aggregate (e.g. GDP growth)
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Assessed by how the real-time estimate converges on the eventual official data as new indicators are incorporated

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Nearby constructs

construct6 fields · 7 citationsjingle · one name, six constructscurrent3 fields · 6 citationsjingle · one word, three constructsfigure2 fields · 3 citationsjingle · one word, two constructs

References

  1. Wilson, J. W., Crook, N. A., Mueller, C. K., Sun, J., & Dixon, M. (1998). Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(10), 2079–2099. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2079:NTASR>2.0.CO;2
  2. Giannone, D., Reichlin, L., & Small, D. (2008). Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55(4), 665–676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.010

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