Construct · 1 fields · 1 citations

cohort-component method: a standalone construct

One name. One construct. A landmark on the map.

● anchor · the standard engine of population projection Nearest construct by meaning·not indexed
cohort-componentmethod1 CONSTRUCTCohort-componentWHELPTON · 1936

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Demography

Age the population forward by components

The cohort-component method is the standard technique for projecting a population: it takes the current population by age and sex and rolls it forward one step at a time, applying age-specific survival to move each cohort up, age-specific fertility to generate new births, and assumptions about net migration, then repeats. Whelpton's 1936 An empirical method of calculating future population introduced the component bookkeeping that separates these drivers rather than extrapolating total size directly. The referent is an accounting algorithm for the future age structure of a population, only as reliable as its fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions.[1]

Unit
Projected population counts by age and sex at each future step
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Produced by iterating survivorship, fertility, and net-migration schedules over a base population

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Nearby constructs

demographic momentum1 fields · 1 citationsanchor · growth locked in by age structurereplacement migration1 fields · 1 citationsanchor · immigration proposed to offset ageingdependency ratio1 fields · 1 citationsanchor · the age-burden measure of a population

References

  1. Whelpton, P. K. (1936). An empirical method of calculating future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 31(195), 457–473. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1936.10503346

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