Construct · 1 fields · 1 citations

sure-thing principle: a standalone construct

One name. One construct. A landmark on the map.

● anchor · a single construct Nearest construct by meaning·not indexed
sure-thingprinciple1 CONSTRUCTSure-thing principleSAVAGE · 1954

A single standalone construct; nearby constructs are located against it in the Collider. Tap a field for its definition, unit, and measures.

Decision theory

If you'd pick it either way, pick it

The sure-thing principle is an axiom of rational choice under uncertainty: if you would prefer one option to another whether or not some event occurs, then you should prefer it without knowing whether the event occurs, because the outcome in that respect is a 'sure thing' either way. Savage's The Foundations of Statistics introduced it as a cornerstone of subjective expected-utility theory, illustrated by a businessman who would buy a property whether an election went one way or the other and so should buy it regardless. The referent is a consistency requirement on preferences across states of the world, tested by whether choices separate from irrelevant shared outcomes, and famously challenged by the Allais paradox and the disjunction effect.[1]

Unit
Whether preferences stay consistent across an uncertain event's outcomes
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Probed by choice experiments that check whether a preference holds in each state yet reverses under uncertainty

Next

Run it through the Collider, or take the citations with you.

See how sure-thing principle sits against neighbouring constructs in the Collider, or export every reference on this page in one click.

Open in ColliderExport BibTeXReport this entry

Nearby constructs

disjunction2 fields · 2 citationsjingle · one word, two constructsambiguity aversion3 names · 4 citationsjangle · one attitude, many model namesconsistency4 fields · 5 citationsjingle · one word, four constructs

References

  1. Savage, L. J. (1972). The foundations of statistics (2nd rev. ed.). Dover Publications. (Original work published 1954) ISBN 9780486623498

Cited on this page?

Confirm your construct, or correct us.

If your work is cited behind one of these entries, you know better than we do whether we captured the meaning right. Confirm it, suggest an edit, or dispute it, and your name goes on the entry as an author who has checked it, linked to your ORCID.

Claim your construct