Where does uncertainty collide?

In economics and decision theory, uncertainty is the kind of unknown that cannot be reduced to a measurable probability, which sets it apart from risk, where the odds are known or can be estimated. Knight's 1921 book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit drew this line and argued that genuine, unquantifiable uncertainty is what allows entrepreneurial profit to exist. The referent is a state of knowledge about future outcomes whose likelihoods are not just unknown but cannot be assigned at all, and it is unlike a physical limit on measurement, a national tendency to avoid the unknown, or the numerical doubt attached to a reading. For the neighbouring ideas, see the risk and ambiguity pages.[1]

Unit

A state of knowledge in which outcome probabilities cannot be assigned

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Not directly measured; identified by the absence of a reliable probability distribution, in contrast to measurable risk

In cross-cultural management, uncertainty avoidance is the degree to which the members of a national culture feel uncomfortable with ambiguity and unknown situations, and so prefer clear rules, structure, and predictability. Hofstede's 1980 book Culture's Consequences introduced it as one of the dimensions on which national cultures differ, scored from large employee surveys across many countries. The referent is a shared cultural tendency measured as a country-level index, not a property of a single particle, an individual's private state of knowledge, or the doubt reported with a physical measurement.[2]

Unit

A country-level index score on a cultural dimension

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Scored from survey items on rule orientation, employment stability, and felt stress, aggregated to a national index

In metrology, the science of measurement, uncertainty is a number that expresses the doubt about the value of a measured quantity, reported as an interval within which the true value is believed to lie at a stated level of confidence. The GUM framework, set out for practical use in Taylor and Kuyatt's 1994 Guidelines for Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results, combines the scatter of repeated readings with other estimated contributions into a single figure. The referent is a quantified, reported doubt attached to a specific measurement result, and it differs from a fundamental physical limit, an economist's unquantifiable unknown, or a culture's discomfort with ambiguity.[3]

Unit

A doubt interval around a measured value, at a stated confidence level

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Combined from the statistical scatter of repeated readings and other estimated components into a standard or expanded uncertainty