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Brinkmanship is the strategy of deliberately raising the shared risk of a disaster that would harm both sides, in order to pressure an opponent into conceding before the situation slips out of control. Schelling's 1960 The strategy of conflict analyzed it as the “manipulation of risk” and the “threat that leaves something to chance”: because a party cannot credibly promise to choose mutual ruin outright, it instead relinquishes some control and lets the danger of accidental escalation do the coercing. The referent is a coercive bargaining tactic built on credibility and the gradual, probabilistic approach to a cliff edge, a staple of deterrence theory rather than a formal solution concept.[1]
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