Where does chance collide?

In the mathematics of probability, a chance is a number that says how likely an event is, scaled from impossible to certain. Abraham de Moivre's 1718 The Doctrine of Chances gave the first book-length method for calculating these values for games of play, and Laplace's 1814 Essai philosophique sur les probabilités set out the classical rule that the chance of an event is the count of favourable cases divided by the count of equally possible cases. Here the referent is a quantity attached to an event, a pure number between zero and one, not a way of writing music, a random force in evolution, or a loss a court can value.[1][2]

Unit

A single event's likelihood, as a number from zero (impossible) to one (certain)

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Derived from equally likely cases, from long-run frequencies, or as a degree of belief updated by evidence

In evolutionary biology, chance names the random side of how populations change: gene frequencies drift from one generation to the next simply because only some individuals happen to reproduce, apart from any advantage. Sewall Wright's 1931 Evolution in Mendelian Populations first modelled this random drift as a distinct force alongside natural selection, and Motoo Kimura's 1968 neutral theory argued that most change at the molecular level is fixed by chance rather than by selection. The referent is a random process acting on inherited variation across generations, not a number attached to a single event, a compositional method, or a doctrine in tort law.[3][4]

Unit

The frequency of a gene variant in a population, shifting across generations

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Modelled through effective population size and quantified as variance in gene frequencies over generations

In music, chance (also called aleatoric or indeterminate composition) is a way of writing or performing a work in which some choices are left to random procedures or to the performer rather than being fixed by the composer. John Cage's chance operations, begun around 1951 and set out in his 1961 collection Silence: Lectures and Writings, used tosses of coins and the I Ching to decide pitches, durations, and other details, so that the finished score was partly the product of a random method. The referent is a compositional practice that hands part of the work to indeterminacy, not a measured likelihood, a random force in biology, or a lost outcome in a lawsuit.[5]

Unit

One composed or performed work whose details are set by a random procedure

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Described by which musical choices are left to chance and by the procedure (coin toss, I Ching, performer choice) used to fix them

In tort law, a lost chance is the reduced probability of a better outcome that a defendant's negligence took away, treated as an injury a court can value in its own right. Joseph King's 1981 article Causation, Valuation, and Chance in Personal Injury Torts Involving Preexisting Conditions and Future Consequences, in the Yale Law Journal, set out the doctrine, arguing that where a doctor's error cuts a patient's odds of survival, the lost probability itself should be compensable in proportion, rather than recovery being all or nothing. The referent is a legal interest in a probability, awarded as a fraction of full damages, not a measure in mathematics, a random force in biology, or a way of composing music.[6]

Unit

The probability of a better outcome that negligence removed, expressed as a percentage

Recovery means

Damages awarded as that percentage of the full loss, rather than all or nothing

Measured by

Estimated from statistical evidence of the outcome's likelihood but for the negligence, then applied to the value of the full loss