Construct · 1 fields · 3 citations

demographic transition: a standalone construct

One name. One construct. A landmark on the map.

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demographictransition1 CONSTRUCTDemog. transitionTHOMPSON · POP TRANSITION

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Demography

The shift from high to low birth and death rates as a society develops

Warren Thompson's 1929 paper Population sorted the world's countries into groups by their birth and death rates and described how, as industrial societies developed, both rates fell in sequence, the death rate first and the birth rate later. Frank Notestein named this pattern the demographic transition in 1945 and gave it its standard staged account: a pre-modern condition of high birth and high death rates with slow growth, an early phase in which death rates drop while birth rates stay high and population grows quickly, a later phase in which birth rates also fall, and a modern condition of low birth and low death rates with slow growth once more. In plain terms, the construct describes the shift a population makes from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality as living standards, public health, and economic conditions change. Its distinctive scope is that it links falling mortality, the lagged decline of fertility, and the resulting surge and eventual leveling of population size into one long-run demographic sequence that demographers have documented across many countries and periods.[1][2][3]

Unit
A long-run, stage-based sequence in which death rates and then birth rates fall within a population
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Tracked with vital-registration and census data as crude birth and death rates, the total fertility rate, and the rate of natural increase over time

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Nearby constructs

fertility4 fields · 7 citationsjingle · one word, four constructsmortality4 fields · 5 citationsjingle · one word, four constructspopulation4 fields · 4 citationsjingle · one word, four constructs

References

  1. Thompson, W. S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology, 34(6), 959–975. https://doi.org/10.1086/214874
  2. Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population: The long view. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the world (pp. 36–57). University of Chicago Press.
  3. Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic transition theory. Population Studies, 50(3), 361–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000149536

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