Construct · 1 fields · 1 citations

turkey: a standalone construct

One name. One construct. A landmark on the map.

● anchor · a standalone construct Nearest construct by meaning·not indexed
turkey1 CONSTRUCTTaleb's turkeyTALEB · INDUCTION TRAP

A single standalone construct; nearby constructs are located against it in the Collider. Tap a field for its definition, unit, and measures.

Epistemology of risk

A parable of induction and tail risk

In Taleb's treatment of uncertainty the turkey is a parable of the problem of induction: a turkey fed every day grows ever more confident that people mean it well, and that confidence peaks the day before it is slaughtered. Taleb's The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable uses it to show how a long run of confirming data can breed false security against a rare, catastrophic reversal that past frequencies never hinted at. The referent is an epistemic cautionary device about inference and hidden tail risk, not a bird and not a bowling feat.[1]

Unit
A thought experiment about inference and rare catastrophic events
Recovery means
Not applicable
Measured by
Illustrative rather than measured; it dramatises the limits of projecting past frequencies forward

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Nearby constructs

accuracy3 fields · 6 citationsjingle · one word, three constructsborrow1 fields · 1 citationsanchor · a standalone constructconfidence4 fields · 5 citationsjingle · one word, four constructs

References

  1. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House. ISBN 9781400063512

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