Where does expectation collide?

The long-run average of a random quantity, computed by weighting each possible value by its probability and adding the results: for a fair gamble it is the price at which the bet is neither favourable nor unfavourable. Huygens's 1657 De ratiociniis in ludo aleae introduced this quantity as the value of a chance, and it became the operator now written as the mean of a distribution. The referent is a number attached to a probability distribution, a fixed summary of a random variable, and it is not a forecast held by a person, a belief that effort will pay off, or a norm attached to a social position.[1]

Unit

A single number in the units of the random variable, the sum of value times probability

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Computed from a distribution as the probability-weighted sum or integral, or estimated from data by the sample mean

In macroeconomics, the forecast that economic agents form about future prices, income, or policy, treated as if it were the true statistical prediction of the model itself given all available information. Muth's 1961 Rational expectations and the theory of price movements proposed that such forecasts are, on average, correct and use information efficiently, so agents are not fooled in a systematic way. The referent is a subjective prediction held by people in an economy and modelled as the mathematical expectation conditional on what they know, which is different from the bare operator of probability, a motivational belief, or a social role.[2]

Unit

A forecast of a future economic variable, held by an agent and conditioned on an information set

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Inferred from survey forecasts, from asset prices, or imposed in a model as the true conditional expectation of the variable

In the psychology of motivation, the strength of a person's belief that a given effort or action will actually lead to a particular result, one of the factors that drives whether they try. Vroom's 1964 Work and motivation set out expectancy theory, in which motivation rises with the belief that effort produces performance and that performance produces valued rewards. The referent is a subjective belief inside one person about a causal link between what they do and what follows, and it is not an average of a distribution, an economy-wide forecast, or a shared norm.[3]

Unit

A subjective probability-like belief in one person that effort leads to an outcome

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Assessed by self-report scales that ask how strongly a person believes an effort or action will produce a stated result

In sociology, the shared anticipation of how a person in a given position or status is supposed to behave, and how competent others assume they will be. Berger, Cohen, and Zelditch's 1972 Status characteristics and social interaction developed expectation states theory, showing how status cues lead group members to expect more from some people than others and to give them more chances to speak and lead. The referent is a collective anticipation attached to a social position, held across a group rather than in one head, which sets it apart from a number, a market forecast, or a private motivational belief.[4]

Unit

An anticipated behavior or competence attached to a position, shared across a group

Recovery means

Not applicable

Measured by

Studied in small-group experiments by observing who speaks, who is deferred to, and how influence tracks status cues